LSU vs Mississippi State, Prediction Pick, 2009
By McD from Rumors and Rants
Auburn ran for 390 yards on Mississippi State two weeks ago. Vanderbilt only averaged 1.1 yards per carry against the Bulldog defense last week. The difference? Auburn actually has talent in the backfield, much like LSU. What does that mean for this week’s SEC West clash? I have no idea.
And yet, rushing offense in general remains something of a mystery three games into the season. The Tigers ran for 164 yards on 36 attempts last week against Louisiana-Lafayette and only won 31-3. In the same game, Jordan Jefferson threw 25 times. That’s the kind of run/pass balance you’d expect from LSU. But 164 yards seems low, especially when you see that Charles Scott and Keiland Williams only got 12 carries and 10 carries, respectively. LSU barely won the time of possession battle (by a whole four minutes) and, though they threw for three touchdowns, the passing game failed to move the ball consistently. Worse, Scott couldn’t convert a 4th and 1. Against ULL’s defensive line. You read that right.
Thus, my big question heading into LSU’s first conference game of the year is: what the hell is going on with the running game and the playcalling? Is it underwhelming because Gary Crowton’s spread tendencies are screwing up a great thing in Scott and Williams? Or is it because Scott and Williams aren’t performing well, putting the OC in a bind? Or is it because the offensive line isn’t all that good?
I’m not saying the Tigers need to run it more against MSU, but the running game, and the offense in general has been singularly mediocre in three straight games. It’s never been amazing under Les Miles (killing explosive offenses, whether it be another team’s or his own, is kind of Miles’ specialty), but I want to know what the hell’s going on and I’m not even an LSU fan.
As for beating Mississippi State, the usual checklist of efficiency in the passing game and explosiveness in the running game is how the Tigers will win. MSU’s offense is much better now, so 17 points won’t cut it this week, and LSU is going to need to play better defense than this guy (http://www.bustedcoverage.com/?p=20291).
That said, the big key to this game is Jordan Jefferson. He needs to be a much bigger threat both throwing and running for the rest of the season, or the shadow of Russell Shepard is going to loom larger and larger. Shepard got into the ULL game and averaged 5.3 YPC on four attempts, much better than Jefferson’s 3.1. They even had Jarrett Freaking Lee come in and throw a touchdown near the goal line.
The LSU passing game doesn’t scare anyone, which means no one is backing away from the line of scrimmage, thus screwing up what should be a scary good rushing attack. This might be a team more built for the Georgia Tech offense than any other in the country…except for maybe Georgia Tech (though I bet Paul Johnson would switch rosters with Les Miles in a second), but since LSU likes to spread it out a lot, Jefferson throwing has to be a much, much bigger threat against Mississippi State. So once again, I’m challenging the running backs and offensive line to truly dominate this week’s game. LSU really does need to keep the Bulldog offense off the field because they are a threat to score much more than they used to be. It’s not pretty, but they’re far better than last year.
The other key is the LSU rush defense. The Tigers allowed Vandy to rush for 122 yards while MSU only gave up 29 to the Commodores. Mississippi State has a myriad of runners they use to move the ball; it’s Florida’s offense, after all. Their passing game isn’t a huge threat to LSU’s somewhat sketchy veteran secondary, but the running game is. The Tigers simply cannot allow Mississippi State to control the clock and the pace of play because the LSU offense isn’t built to handle that. We have something of an old-school Big Ten matchup happening here: LSU must run the ball effectively and defend the run effectively. Plus Jefferson cannot screw them through the air. If that happens, unless something freaky like the Colts/Dolphins game from this past Monday goes down, LSU wins on the road and silences those damn cowbells for sure.
With a 12.5 point spread, I’m taking LSU and a VERY slight cover.
