Half-Dozen Hyper-specific Predictions about…Kentucky

I’m back with the half-dozen thoughts in an attempt to roll out a preview upon you, the SEC Football Blogger reader. Today, the deepest of sleepers in the SEC. That’s right. I’m bringing you 6 calls on Kentucky.

None of them involving John Calipari buying a recruit from Seattle.

Last Year: 7-6 (3-5) t4th in the SEC East

1) There will be a brief interest in Randall Cobb as a Heisman trophy candidate in September after he gets off onto a ridiculous start. But while it will fade, he will end the year being a part of 20 Kentucky touchdowns. And they will come in all four possible ways.

2) Mike Hartline will get off to a good start again, but the highlight win of the season will come with Morgan Newton under center. The exact details of that call come later.

3) Youth will be served as true freshman running back Brandon Gainer will find himself managing to average 4.8 yards per game in at least 80 carries, and redshirt freshman outside linebacker Qua Huzzie gets himself 93 tackles.

4) Paul Warford’s had a bit of a misadventure during his time in Kentucky to say the least. But while the Junior season Trevard Lindley didn’t show up this year, Paul Warford will have double digit breakups and 5 picks.

With Paul Warford’s dismissal, Kentucky will finish in the bottom half of the SEC in terms of pass defense. And since I’m being hyper-specific? I’ll say 8th.

5) But that won’t stop Kentucky from having a bad October. The streak of losses will continue against Steve Spurrier. In fact? They’re going to go 1-4. But that being said? They will beat Georgia as their highlight win.

6) That is, unless you consider beating a likely down Tennessee team as the highlight.

I’m not exactly bearish on Kentucky, but at least in terms of record? I’m going to try and get it as right as humanly possible. If you’re paying attention, there may be an SEC East theme that develops. That being said?

2010 looks similar to 2009.

This year: 7-5, 3-5 in conference, tied for 3rd in the SEC East

The Trap Games of the SEC Season

One of my favorite aspects of college football is the trap game. You have 20-something kids on a roll getting overconfident, and boom. There’s an upset. It’s what got me following the SEC, if we’re being completely honest. But since we’re not yet sponsored by EA sports?

That’s another story for another day. Today? We’re discussing trap games. The chance for a bad to decent team to beat a great team.

We’ll start with the NCAA Football 11 Preseason National Champions. There’s been a lot said about the fact that a lot of teams have bye weeks before they’re rolling up on Alabama. But only one team has the power and the timing to go up against the Crimson Tide before they seem to have jelled. That’s when they travel to Fayetteville  on September 25th to take on the Razorbacks.

One week before Florida rolls into town.

Does Florida have a trap game? Yes and no. It’s like I said in April. Kentucky is intriguing. In my bolder days, I would say that Kentucky could take them down, but today I am not feeling so bold. They can keep it close in Ben Hill Griffin on the 25th.

Kentucky’s real shot at a trap win is when Georgia comes to Lexington on October 23rd. It’s one week before the bete noir of the Georgia faithful a.k.a. The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. And it may actually not be considered an upset even if Kentucky doesn’t shock the Gators.

Arkansas has their own trap game worry the week before they play Auburn as well. October 9th. In front of the worlds largest television screen. They play the one offense they can stand toe to toe with them in Texas A&M. Why is this interesting? Because neither team has a great defense, but A&M has a pass-rusher in Von Miller. And he generated 17.5 sacks literally all by himself. He gets rolling and the Hogs fall.

The lucky ones are Auburn and LSU. Auburn’s schedule is built for a run at insurging the two-team power trip. And if you consider Tennessee’s issues? LSU’s losses can be boiled down to ill-preparation.

Rating the Indoor Practice Facilities of the SEC.

I know what you’re thinking. LOL what? Is this even a post. And I say unto you, mister and missus hypothetical reader. I like to challenge myself. Sometimes, I want to see if I cannot make something interesting. And when Auburn tripled the size of their indoor practice facility? I have an excuse!

In one of the strangest one of these things is not like the other sort of scenarios? Two out of the twelve? Don’t have indoor practice facilities. One of them is Vanderbilt. Guess the other one. Come on.

I’ll even add to it that it’s nobody in the SEC West. When Auburn’s expansion is complete? There will be nobody who has to work a short field either. You might guess Kentucky. But you’d be wrong.

South Carolina and Tennessee are both working off of short fields. But they’ve got something to work with.

So at this point? The fact that Georgia and Florida don’t have an indoor facility is strange. These are the Eastern powers of the SEC, after all. They should be top of the line in everything they do. But one of them has plans for a new indoor facility.

And guess what? It’s not Florida.

Let me say that again. The team of the previous decade has found their way into the best high school recruits of this generation. And their facilities are lacking. There is an obvious lesson to it.

But I’ll leave that to you to figure out.

The “Little Ten” of the SEC

The narrative coming out of the SEC, besides Alabama’s general ailments of the bye week disadvantages, is that we are in the midst of a duopoly. There’s Florida, there’s Alabama, and then there’s the other ten teams. I come to you with one question. Can anybody charge in and steal a spot?

10. Vanderbilt (Nope. A running game and a decent defense means you have a punchers chance against the majority of the league, but that got Mississippi State five wins last year. That’s seven wins too little.)
9. Mississippi State (2%. Mullen may be building off of last season, but the team still needs more at WR than Chad Bumphis and an Anthony Dixon replacement. They won’t steal anything more than the Liberty Bowl this year.)
8. Tennessee (5 percent. They won’t m9iss Bryce Brown, and you may not be able to throw too well on them. But these are underdogs who made their bed and has to lie in it.)
7. Ole Miss (5 percent. They have a solid run defense. But their team is too young. Nathan Stanley doesn’t have a great offensive line to protect him either. And Raymond Cotton? He has the shoulder of the Tubervillian Chris Todd. They’ll be interesting again. But not this year.)
6. South Carolina (10 percent. In terms of talent? They may surprise. Ellis Johnson has a defense that reloads every season. And the offense is intriguing in terms of Jarvis Giles and Marcus Lattimore carrying the rock, and the catching the ball? Alshon Jeffrey isn’t gonna be pumping gas anytime soon. The problem? Stephen Garcia’s general incosistency plus program inertia equals Pizza bowl.)
5. Kentucky (They have a 1 in ten shot of beating Florida. And if they do that? Their number rises exponentially. But at this point? Hartline-Cobb-Matthews-Locke are a lot more interesting to me than they are to you. As such? This is the one that could rise in unlikelyhood.)
4. Arkansas (20 percent. Alex Tejada plus a road game at Auburn could pose a problem. The Defensive Front Seven could pose a problem. Ryan Mallett’s inconsistency? Also problematic. But you answer one of the questions? And they’re a dangerous middle of the road SEC West Team.)
3. Georgia (25 percent. Freshmen don’t win the SEC. In that respect? Aaron Murray’s weight is better than the other 10 returning starters. A defensive switch in scheme doesn’t help either. And even a Freshman Matt Stafford couldn’t beat Kentucky in Lexington in the pre-Raylan Givens era.) 
2. LSU (25 percent. I don’t trust Jordan Jefferson, and the line lost its players of value as well. But they have a lockdown pass defense and considering the state of the SEC West? That’s worth a lot to the party right there.)
1. Auburn (50 percent. Here is your last, best hope for an insurgency. And as such? It’s 50-50. Either they beat The Crimson Tide or they don’t.)

 I will make a more formal predsiction this Summer. And I will further the individual season previews in the weeks upcoming. So yeah. It’s coming kids.

FUHBAW!

Is Kentucky a Sleeper in the SEC East?

I don’t know about you, but I’m the sort of guy who likes to look at a team and see if I can’t talk myself into a scenario occuring. It may sound crazy to you. But you know what? Sometimes, it comes true.

And when you’re in a world where the SEC East seems like it could be up for grabs? The one sleeper team could be the Kentucky Wildcats.

Let me say that again. The Kentucky Wildcats can win the SEC East. Why? I have reasons three.

1) They’re Florida’s Trap Game

Sure, Florida has Kentucky at the swamp and Florida has an athletic advantage. But Kentucky has a schedule of home games against Western Kentucky and Akron going in. (Combined Record: 3-21). Florida? South Florida and at Tennessee. (Combined Record: 15-11). A tougher road to hoe by far.

And who does Florida have after Kentucky? It’s a road game. At Alabama. Florida’s going to be jumped at some point during the schedule early on. And Kentucky’s due to steal one.

2) The best mixture of skill position talent and experience.

They don’t have an A.J. Green, but they don’t have a question at quarterback. They don’t have a potential combination of John Brantley to Andre DeBose. But their combination has had more achievements in NCAA Football ’10.

If you’re Kentucky? You have the spectacular versatility of Randall Cobb. The most likely to be the reason to love Kentucky in the Hardballin’ Chris Matthews. Derrick Locke is back, if Wikipedia isn’t lying to me. And you have the veteran intangibles of Mike Hartline and the athleticism of a Morgan Newton. They do need to fill up the inside of the line, but they have a veteran triad. And it’s really bloody good.

3) Outside of Florida? You have to like their schedule.

Their toughest non-conference game? Louisville right after they bottomed out. The other three nonconference games are gimmes. Their three SEC road games not named Florida are Ole Miss, Missippi State, and Tennessee. All three games are winnable. Vanderbilt’s at home. That’s a 7-1 worst case scenario.

And when you consider that South Carolina, Auburn, and Georgia travel to Lexington? Kentucky can get 8 wins with an average team. But I think they’re going to get to ten.

Crazy? Maybe. But I think this is going to be the sort of thing where Kentucky’s about to shock the world again.

Rick Brooks to Retire as Greatest Kentucky Football Coach Ever

Or: SEC ACTION NEWSBRIEF TWO! THE NEWSBRIEFENING!

Or at least the guy who made the single greatest run of “success” in Kentucky history. He brought them to four straight bowl games. Bear Bryant couldn’t do that, and Bear Bryant once killed a Bear with nothing more than his fedora. And this year just might have pulled out his greatest trick. He won this year with little more than luck, pluck, and Randall Cobb. 

It’s true.  I checked.

I will miss Rich Brooks, and I hope you do too.

Kentucky vs. Clemson, 2009 Music City Bowl , Prediction Pick

For the Gaylord (hee) Hotels Music City Bowl? You have one of the most explosive potential duels in the bowl season. C.J. Spiller was one of the greats of this college football season, and the fact that he was denied a trip to New York City to celebrate his season is a travesty. And the next challenger to his power? You guessed it, Randall Cobb.

Going in? Kentucky is a seven point underdog, and that’s fair. Clemson’s offense is more explosive than Kentuckys on the whole, and it really won’t matter if Morgan Newton starts or Mike Hartline returns. Kentucky just does not have near the pieces that Clemson does if everything goes right. And even if everything doesn’t go right?   

C.J. Spiller has been such a force of nature, that if he gets rolling, there would only be a small chance that Kentucky could win. Kentucky’s 11th in run defense in the SEC as well. Spiller could find his way into a 200 yard three touchdown performance if Big Blue isn’t careful. And I say that without hyperbole.

Don’t think I’m shortchanging Clemson’s defense either. They’re a very solid unit. Third in the ACC in total defense, 4th in scoring defense, and while a good quarterback can throw on the secondary? It is a secondary that led the ACC in picks. So basically, there is a lot of reason as to why Clemson is a strong favorite.

That being said? There are two factors that could lead to a Kentucky win. One? Randall Cobb could decide to take it upon himself to make this a real ballgame. And don’t think he can’t. And Derrick Locke is a weapon who could find space if the focus becomes too much on Cobb.

The other factor? Disappointment. After all, these guys are just kids. And when you go from a potential game with the eyes of the nation upon you all the way to a post-Christmas weekday in Nashville? No offense to Nashville, but it’s not exactly a prime destination in comparison to Miami. You could see sleepwalking, especially with an inconsistent Freshman at QB for the Tigers. It could be enough to give Kentucky a 4th straight Bowl win.

In fact? I’m calling the Mild Upset. Kentucky 28, Clemson 24.

Florida vs Kentucky, Prediction Pick, 2009
By Chris Richardson from Intentional Foul

The reason I’m using a Clubber Lang picture for this preview of the upcoming UK/Florida game is because it goes a long way in demonstrating the amount of confidence the Gators should have when the play in Lexington on Saturday.  The same bravado that powered Clubber’s “Prediction?  Pain.” boasts is probably similar to the mindset of the Gators.  Sure, Urban Meyer says the right things about Kentucky — that is, they have top-tier talent, while complimenting Rich Brooks — but let’s be honest here, Kentucky hasn’t beaten the Florida Gators since November of 1986.

I say again, the Kentucky Wildcats have not beaten the Florida Gators in a football contest since November 15, 1986.

Think about that for a second.  For 22-plus years, Kentucky’s football program has not had a win against a team they play every year.  Included in that 23-year long span are scores such as these:  73-7 (1994), 65-0 (1996), and last season’s 63-5 beatdown.  With that in mind, as a Kentucky fan, what can you say when the annual “Displays of Continued Dominance by the Florida Gators” returns to Commonwealth Stadium?  Is this the year we finally break through?  Yeah, right.  That sentiment left about five years ago.  After 22-straight losses, why on earth would one even entertain the idea of winning?  Sure, the idea is awfully heady, but the truth is, as long as the talent differential is so severe, Florida’s dominance of Kentucky will, in all likelihood, continue.

Sure, the Gators could come to Lexington and lay an uninspired, swine flu-ridden egg, but if they don’t, I’m not expecting 22 years of frustration to be alleviated.  Sure, Kentucky has some talent on its team, but is it really comparable to what the Gators have?  Perhaps with some starters, but certainly not in the depth department.  As a fan that’s on the losing side of all these years, I’d love to see Tim Tebow, Will Demps and Brandon Spikes contract a super-sized version of the swine flu, one that lasts just long enough to make them useless against Kentucky.  Maybe then Kentucky’s chances will improve.

It’s doubtful, but stranger things have happened.

Perhaps this would work:  The “Tebone Me” t-shirt girl seduces her man, works him over in a memorable way, all while documenting it for her AdultFriendFinder.com account.  These highly-sought after pictures hit the Internet in a blaze of glory as folks clamor to see Florida quarterback’s fall from innocence.  And then the media wave hits, Tebow is “disgraced” (about as much as one can be for sexing up a hot co-ed) and quits the team because of his virginal disposition  Because many of his teammates are lost without his moving speeches or sideline eruptions, the Gators spiral out of control in a ball of undisciplined football.  Meanwhile, Urban Meyer storms off before halftime, muttering insults about Lane Kiffin.

Of course, in typical Kentucky fashion, they beef the chance given to them with an over-the-head pass from Michael Hartline that somehow lands in Major White’s hands. Naturally, White would return the pick for a game-winning touchdown, and the Kentucky football fanbase would commit a Heaven’s Gate-style mass suicide, all while cursing the city of Gainesville and whatever demon spawn gave birth to Major White.  Oh, and just in case you think I’m embellishing here, every thing I’ve mentioned — save the mass suicide — has already happened once already.  The only differences are the names involved.  Just ask Jared Lorenzen.

With all of that in mind, allow me to predict the score.  Currently, the spread is 21.5 in favor of the Gators.  Part of me thinks that might be a little conservative.  Sure, the “that’s why they play the game” mentality comes into play, but since Kentucky’s played said game and lost 22 times in a row, I’ve even given up on that.

Florida – 47
Kentucky – 17