LSU vs. North Carolina, Prediction Pick

Even the staunchest LSU fan has to admit that Les Miles has crumpled in the last few minutes of … countless games. There is something about the last few minutes of a game that turns Les into a Junior Varsity assistant coach in charge of making sure all the kids have their mouth guards in, and not a former National Champion. The running game that was supposed to be so great last year .. was not. But, they still have a ton of talent.

On the other hand Butch’s Tar Heals have a litany of future NFL talent for the first time since, … ever. The problem is that a lot of that talent is on the scout bench and will not play.

This pick is simple. LSU will win, and look good doing it. LSU will most likely jump up to the top 15. North Carolina will drop out of the top 25 until their team is back on the roster. They should still do very well in a weak ACC. LSU, will ride their high horse until they meet up with West Virginia, Sept 25th. Unless West Virginia has an outbreak of agent interaction, you can expect a late game mishap by Les. Some things are easy to predict.

Player of the game will be LSU’s Charles Scott with 2 TD’s and a hair over 100 yards rushing.

They'll actually be missing THIS GUY. LOL.

A Half-Dozen Hyper-Specific Predictions About…LSU

I know what you’re thinking, a few dull platitudes. A random number of tackles, and a record much like last year, right? You are so wrong. And let me tell you why.

Last Year: 9-4 (5-3) t2nd SEC West

1) With all the controversy coming out of Chapel Hill, no one is giving any regard to the fact that North Carolina still has a very strong defense. LSU does not have a strong offensive line. An ugly season opener gives the ACC some hope as a defensive touchdown allows North Carolina some Week 1 solace with a 10-9 win.

2) A traditionally strong unit will get gashed as the defensive line will be blamed for several strong performances by running backs like Trent Richardson, Brandon Bolden, Ontario McCalebb and Noel Devine. All will rush for 125 plus yards.  Though they will get a little Saturday Night magic against West Virginia.

3) Jordan Jefferson will add 500 plus net yards rushing to his 2000 yards passing. The only problem? He will lose about half that total via the sieve-like offensive line.

4) Much like a Tony Franklin did to Tommy Tuberville, multiple insipid offensive performances (especially only getting 21 points against McNeese State) will force Les Miles to fire Gary Crowton after they couldn’t get three scores against a shaky Auburn defense.

5) Positivity? They will be a top 5 defense nationally against the pass. Morris Claiborne will have 15 pass breakups. And Michael Ford will go off for two 100 yard games at the end of the year, solidifying a spot as next years starter.

6) The SEC West is going to be the toughest division in football. And if you believe the division is going to essentially be three great teams and one solid team, a flawed team like LSU could be better than their record indicates. And Les Miles could be out of work by this time next year.

This year: 5-7 (2-6) 6th SEC West

In Defense of the SEC Scheduling

The NCAA came out with its official listing of FBS versus FCS games. And as per usual? The SEC comes strong with the gimmes. The ACC has one more, but the fact of the matter is that when you have 12 games that are gimmes? Your nonconference record and reputation can be slightly inflated.

And as a football fan? It’s definitely a terrible thing. Beyond a shadow of a doubt there’s no real entertainment value for a game that’s likely to be 38-3 at the half. But that being said? The SEC does it a little differently.

There are 11 games of this ilk that are set to go off past September. The SEC has seven of these games. One is interesting in a sort of dynasty versus dynasty. (Appalachian State at Florida). One is interesting in a will Nick Saban put up 100 sort of way? (Georgia State at Alabama.) All are guaranteed wins.

But they are guaranteed wins that allow the teams breathing room. Georgia State comes before the Iron Bowl. Appy State comes before a seemingly sprightly Florida State. Mississippi State travels to Non-AQ superpower Houston right after they play Alcorn State. LSU gets McNeese State before Auburn.

In fact? Georgia and Auburn are both taking the gimmie before they play each other on November 13th.

I know, I know, cool story bro. I get it.

But you know what this is? This is a trend. You’ll see more teams jerryrig a schedule to get a tuneup before the big game. You won’t see a conference like the ACC schedule 12 September games with local FBS powers anymore.

It’s the wave of the future, and the SEC is out in front of it.

Rating the Indoor Practice Facilities of the SEC.

I know what you’re thinking. LOL what? Is this even a post. And I say unto you, mister and missus hypothetical reader. I like to challenge myself. Sometimes, I want to see if I cannot make something interesting. And when Auburn tripled the size of their indoor practice facility? I have an excuse!

In one of the strangest one of these things is not like the other sort of scenarios? Two out of the twelve? Don’t have indoor practice facilities. One of them is Vanderbilt. Guess the other one. Come on.

I’ll even add to it that it’s nobody in the SEC West. When Auburn’s expansion is complete? There will be nobody who has to work a short field either. You might guess Kentucky. But you’d be wrong.

South Carolina and Tennessee are both working off of short fields. But they’ve got something to work with.

So at this point? The fact that Georgia and Florida don’t have an indoor facility is strange. These are the Eastern powers of the SEC, after all. They should be top of the line in everything they do. But one of them has plans for a new indoor facility.

And guess what? It’s not Florida.

Let me say that again. The team of the previous decade has found their way into the best high school recruits of this generation. And their facilities are lacking. There is an obvious lesson to it.

But I’ll leave that to you to figure out.

The “Little Ten” of the SEC

The narrative coming out of the SEC, besides Alabama’s general ailments of the bye week disadvantages, is that we are in the midst of a duopoly. There’s Florida, there’s Alabama, and then there’s the other ten teams. I come to you with one question. Can anybody charge in and steal a spot?

10. Vanderbilt (Nope. A running game and a decent defense means you have a punchers chance against the majority of the league, but that got Mississippi State five wins last year. That’s seven wins too little.)
9. Mississippi State (2%. Mullen may be building off of last season, but the team still needs more at WR than Chad Bumphis and an Anthony Dixon replacement. They won’t steal anything more than the Liberty Bowl this year.)
8. Tennessee (5 percent. They won’t m9iss Bryce Brown, and you may not be able to throw too well on them. But these are underdogs who made their bed and has to lie in it.)
7. Ole Miss (5 percent. They have a solid run defense. But their team is too young. Nathan Stanley doesn’t have a great offensive line to protect him either. And Raymond Cotton? He has the shoulder of the Tubervillian Chris Todd. They’ll be interesting again. But not this year.)
6. South Carolina (10 percent. In terms of talent? They may surprise. Ellis Johnson has a defense that reloads every season. And the offense is intriguing in terms of Jarvis Giles and Marcus Lattimore carrying the rock, and the catching the ball? Alshon Jeffrey isn’t gonna be pumping gas anytime soon. The problem? Stephen Garcia’s general incosistency plus program inertia equals Pizza bowl.)
5. Kentucky (They have a 1 in ten shot of beating Florida. And if they do that? Their number rises exponentially. But at this point? Hartline-Cobb-Matthews-Locke are a lot more interesting to me than they are to you. As such? This is the one that could rise in unlikelyhood.)
4. Arkansas (20 percent. Alex Tejada plus a road game at Auburn could pose a problem. The Defensive Front Seven could pose a problem. Ryan Mallett’s inconsistency? Also problematic. But you answer one of the questions? And they’re a dangerous middle of the road SEC West Team.)
3. Georgia (25 percent. Freshmen don’t win the SEC. In that respect? Aaron Murray’s weight is better than the other 10 returning starters. A defensive switch in scheme doesn’t help either. And even a Freshman Matt Stafford couldn’t beat Kentucky in Lexington in the pre-Raylan Givens era.) 
2. LSU (25 percent. I don’t trust Jordan Jefferson, and the line lost its players of value as well. But they have a lockdown pass defense and considering the state of the SEC West? That’s worth a lot to the party right there.)
1. Auburn (50 percent. Here is your last, best hope for an insurgency. And as such? It’s 50-50. Either they beat The Crimson Tide or they don’t.)

 I will make a more formal predsiction this Summer. And I will further the individual season previews in the weeks upcoming. So yeah. It’s coming kids.

FUHBAW!

LSU versus Penn State, 2009 Capital One Bowl Prediction Pick

Les Miles has lived a charmed life in bowl games. He’s made his bones just destroying teams at the end of the year. Mostly, he’s eaten the Midwest alive. This year? There’s a chance that things might be changing. Let me break it down thusly.

LSU’s offense has wasted its talent in a considerable form or fashion. You have such a superb prospect in Brandon LaFell and you have him averaging only 4 catches a game? You have Charles Scott and Keiland Williams and not combine for 200 rushing attempts? Gary Crowton’s playcalling was ludicrous. I know Billy Gonzalez has come in as a passing game coordinator?

But they lived on special teams, turnover margin, and a little Les Miles lunacy. Can a guy who had to watch Steve Addazio run 27 straight QB dives help change the scenario? I honestly don’t believe it. I’ll explain further in a later paragraph.

A team with a good runner has had success against LSU offensively this season. You don’t have to be a scatback like Dexter McCluster to do it either. So, while Big Ten running backs and professional success can be as elusive as me chasing down a date on Saturday night? Evan Royster should have success.

And I know that LSU’s defense is great. But one of the things they’re not great at? Pass rush. And as Iowa showed, the thing that wounds Penn State most of all is a team with a strong pass rush. Not to say that they can’t get some pressure. But Penn State’s line should be at full strength.

And as defenses go? Penn State’s is powerful. With Jared Odrick generating six sacks as a defensive tackle and Novorro Bowman as the next in line at Linebacker U? They will make some trouble for the Bayou Bengals. Their line allowed about 2.5 sacks per game. Penn State should find their way into the over. 

Now you’re expecting me to call this one a blowout. You would be wrong. Trindon Holliday has a real strong chance to get himself a return for six. The kick coverage for Penn State is mediocre, and the punt coverage is the worst in D-1. It won’t get LSU a win. Just a final of Penn State 17, LSU 14 or some such nonsense.

Alabama vs LSU, Prediction Pick, 2009

LSU journey’s to Tuscaloosa this week to face the No. 3 team in the nation, the Crimson Tide. This will be Nick Saban’s second showdown with his former team. Coach Saban has tried to downplay that aspect of this game. Even without the history between Saban and LSU this is one of the most anticipated games of the season. It is a top 10 match-up that could have a major impact on the SEC championship. If Alabama wins Saturday they will clinch the SEC West, if they lose they could possibly miss the trip to Atlanta. Both teams have a lot of luck on their side. Nobody doubts Alabama’s luck after their win against Tennessee, and who can doubt Les Miles’ luck after their games against Georgia and Mississippi State.

LSU and Alabama are statistically very similar teams. Both teams have very strong defenses, and both teams quarterbacks have very similar stats. LSU’s biggest weakness I think will be third rushing defense which has been allowing an average of 114 yards per game this season. Alabama’s Achilles’ heel seems to be their ability to convert in the red zone. With both teams weaknesses and strengths the performance of a few key players on each team could be the deciding factor.

LSU has two of the strongest receivers in the SEC in Terrance Toliver and Brandon LaFell. If they are able to break free consistently on Saturday it could spell disaster for the Tide. Add to that running back Charles Scott who seems to be ready for a breakout performance this season, and LSU’s offense could cause some damage.

Alabama’s big offensive weapon is obviously Mark Ingram. With already over a 1,000 yards rushing this season, Ingram will come into this game rested and ready to go I’m sure. This week will probably be the performance of the season for Ingram. Alabama also has Julio Jones, who just like LSU’s Charles Scott, is prime for a breakout performance. Add to that Marquis Maze and Trent Richardson, and Alabama has the offensive weapons to reek havoc on the LSU defense as well.

I think this could be one of the best games of the season. Many are predicting this to be a relatively low scoring game. I think I agree with that. I do expect Alabama to pull it out by at least one touchdown. Right now my prediction is Alabama wins 24-17.

LSU vs Auburn, 2009 Prediction Pick 2009
By McD from Rumors and Rants

Two weeks ago, I was excited to preview Auburn because I was going to get to make fun of the haters who said Gene Chizik’s tenure there would be a disaster. I would also get to sing the praises of Gus Malzahn. This was going to be a good week.

LSU is an eight point favorite, and given the history of tight games between these two teams along with LSU’s issues moving the ball, I think LSU is going to win but not cover the eight points Saturday night.