Darren McGavin's worst nightmare.

Half-Dozen Hyper-specific Predictions about…Mississippi State

My computer rolled up and disappeared on me. It’s back now. And while I am not want to hustle too many list posts on you on a regular basis. But in lieu of a preview post? I will steal a conference gimmick from Doctor Saturday and give 6 Hyper specific predictions for each team.

The second one off the deck? The team that finished in a time share of the SEC West cellar with Auburn and Arkansas, your Mississippi State fighting cowbells.

Last year: 5-7 (3-5)

1) While some would consider the September 9th game against Auburn the game that they’re most likely to steal? I see a game with their experienced offensive line and strong defensive line going up against a team in flux, that even if it’s on the road? Mississippi State will beat LSU.

2) Another reason why? Vick Ballard is going to rush for 13 touchdowns this year. Robert Elliott is going to get more carries as they replace Anthony Dixon, but Vick will be the red zone thunder.

3) The Bulldogs lightning? Chad Bumphis. He’ll double his receptions to 64 and end up with 10 touchdowns on the year. He’ll be healthy, and as such?

4) Tyler Russell and Dylan Favre have youth energy, but Chris Reif will show himself to be somewhere above game manager in terms of his core competency and will get rolling.

5) And in terms of the defense? Pernell McPhee is going to get 10 sacks. Manny Diaz loves to run the blitz and James Carmon will be an emerging man beast and he will start by October.

6) In terms of this year? The Bulldogs are in a difficult division to try and get a bowl game. The worst case scenario? 3 wins. (Memphis, UAB, and Alcorn State). But Kentucky is winnable and I think they steal a win versus LSU.

So yeah, second verse, pretty similar to the first.

Final record: 5-7 (2-6) 6th in the SEC West

Jeremiah Masoli gets undergraduate degree.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. Isn’t Masoli a criminal Pac-10 quarterback? A criminal Pac-10 quarterback who lost to Ohio State? (The SEC would never allow that). What is the reason that we’d even consider Jeremiah Masoli’s degree a matter of SEC importance?

Because Jeremiah Masoli got his degree. And as such, he’s eligible to play somewhere else in 2010.

Now, according to KEZI Channel 9, Oregon’s news source? Masoli has a real interest in going to Ole Miss or Mississippi State among other schools. And the obvious “if he keeps his head on straight” caveat makes him somebody you have to consider if you don’t feel as strong as you could at quarterback.

And while Ole Miss may not be the team for him, as Nathan Stanley seems to have won the giggidy of Houston Nutt. But for Mississippi State? Masoli has to be considered a real option. Dan Mullen won five games last year without a real spread quarterback.

But if he decides to go get him a Faustian bargain with Masoli? He would get a bowl game. Flat out and straight away. But if he doesn’t sell out for the Independence Bowl? You’ve got to respect that.

But he’d look really good in Starkville.

In Defense of the SEC Scheduling

The NCAA came out with its official listing of FBS versus FCS games. And as per usual? The SEC comes strong with the gimmes. The ACC has one more, but the fact of the matter is that when you have 12 games that are gimmes? Your nonconference record and reputation can be slightly inflated.

And as a football fan? It’s definitely a terrible thing. Beyond a shadow of a doubt there’s no real entertainment value for a game that’s likely to be 38-3 at the half. But that being said? The SEC does it a little differently.

There are 11 games of this ilk that are set to go off past September. The SEC has seven of these games. One is interesting in a sort of dynasty versus dynasty. (Appalachian State at Florida). One is interesting in a will Nick Saban put up 100 sort of way? (Georgia State at Alabama.) All are guaranteed wins.

But they are guaranteed wins that allow the teams breathing room. Georgia State comes before the Iron Bowl. Appy State comes before a seemingly sprightly Florida State. Mississippi State travels to Non-AQ superpower Houston right after they play Alcorn State. LSU gets McNeese State before Auburn.

In fact? Georgia and Auburn are both taking the gimmie before they play each other on November 13th.

I know, I know, cool story bro. I get it.

But you know what this is? This is a trend. You’ll see more teams jerryrig a schedule to get a tuneup before the big game. You won’t see a conference like the ACC schedule 12 September games with local FBS powers anymore.

It’s the wave of the future, and the SEC is out in front of it.

Rating the Indoor Practice Facilities of the SEC.

I know what you’re thinking. LOL what? Is this even a post. And I say unto you, mister and missus hypothetical reader. I like to challenge myself. Sometimes, I want to see if I cannot make something interesting. And when Auburn tripled the size of their indoor practice facility? I have an excuse!

In one of the strangest one of these things is not like the other sort of scenarios? Two out of the twelve? Don’t have indoor practice facilities. One of them is Vanderbilt. Guess the other one. Come on.

I’ll even add to it that it’s nobody in the SEC West. When Auburn’s expansion is complete? There will be nobody who has to work a short field either. You might guess Kentucky. But you’d be wrong.

South Carolina and Tennessee are both working off of short fields. But they’ve got something to work with.

So at this point? The fact that Georgia and Florida don’t have an indoor facility is strange. These are the Eastern powers of the SEC, after all. They should be top of the line in everything they do. But one of them has plans for a new indoor facility.

And guess what? It’s not Florida.

Let me say that again. The team of the previous decade has found their way into the best high school recruits of this generation. And their facilities are lacking. There is an obvious lesson to it.

But I’ll leave that to you to figure out.

The “Little Ten” of the SEC

The narrative coming out of the SEC, besides Alabama’s general ailments of the bye week disadvantages, is that we are in the midst of a duopoly. There’s Florida, there’s Alabama, and then there’s the other ten teams. I come to you with one question. Can anybody charge in and steal a spot?

10. Vanderbilt (Nope. A running game and a decent defense means you have a punchers chance against the majority of the league, but that got Mississippi State five wins last year. That’s seven wins too little.)
9. Mississippi State (2%. Mullen may be building off of last season, but the team still needs more at WR than Chad Bumphis and an Anthony Dixon replacement. They won’t steal anything more than the Liberty Bowl this year.)
8. Tennessee (5 percent. They won’t m9iss Bryce Brown, and you may not be able to throw too well on them. But these are underdogs who made their bed and has to lie in it.)
7. Ole Miss (5 percent. They have a solid run defense. But their team is too young. Nathan Stanley doesn’t have a great offensive line to protect him either. And Raymond Cotton? He has the shoulder of the Tubervillian Chris Todd. They’ll be interesting again. But not this year.)
6. South Carolina (10 percent. In terms of talent? They may surprise. Ellis Johnson has a defense that reloads every season. And the offense is intriguing in terms of Jarvis Giles and Marcus Lattimore carrying the rock, and the catching the ball? Alshon Jeffrey isn’t gonna be pumping gas anytime soon. The problem? Stephen Garcia’s general incosistency plus program inertia equals Pizza bowl.)
5. Kentucky (They have a 1 in ten shot of beating Florida. And if they do that? Their number rises exponentially. But at this point? Hartline-Cobb-Matthews-Locke are a lot more interesting to me than they are to you. As such? This is the one that could rise in unlikelyhood.)
4. Arkansas (20 percent. Alex Tejada plus a road game at Auburn could pose a problem. The Defensive Front Seven could pose a problem. Ryan Mallett’s inconsistency? Also problematic. But you answer one of the questions? And they’re a dangerous middle of the road SEC West Team.)
3. Georgia (25 percent. Freshmen don’t win the SEC. In that respect? Aaron Murray’s weight is better than the other 10 returning starters. A defensive switch in scheme doesn’t help either. And even a Freshman Matt Stafford couldn’t beat Kentucky in Lexington in the pre-Raylan Givens era.) 
2. LSU (25 percent. I don’t trust Jordan Jefferson, and the line lost its players of value as well. But they have a lockdown pass defense and considering the state of the SEC West? That’s worth a lot to the party right there.)
1. Auburn (50 percent. Here is your last, best hope for an insurgency. And as such? It’s 50-50. Either they beat The Crimson Tide or they don’t.)

 I will make a more formal predsiction this Summer. And I will further the individual season previews in the weeks upcoming. So yeah. It’s coming kids.

FUHBAW!

SEC ACTION NEWSBRIEF!

Mississippi State may have shocked people with a 5-7 season last year, but Dan Mullen’s latest commitment is a forward thinking move to shore up a real weakness. See, the Bulldogs may have been gritty. They may have been gutsy. But they were lacking in people having fun out there.

Enter one Dylan Favre. A nephew of you know who. He promises to be a gunslinger. The one thing Dan Mullen is truly missing. And I for one welcome my new SEC overlord.

THAT’S SUPPOSED TO SAY HAIL FAVRE!

H/t: Team Speed Kills

Florida vs Mississippi State, Prediction Pick, 2009

Florida was lucky to come from behind last week rallying to nip Arkansas 23-20. It almost seems like Urban Meyer is babying Tim Tebow back into his explosive self. Look for the training wheels to be off this weekend. Tim Tebow will finish this game with 400 all-purpose yards and probably watch the fourth quarter from the Gator sidelines. The #1 team in the country will definitely come out screaming this week and the poor victim is a Bulldog in the form of Mississippi State.

In an uncharacteristic performance against the Razorbacks, the Gator offense dropped three passes, had four turnovers, allowed six sacks, and really struggled in the red zone. These statistics will have Meyer on overdrive at practice all week.

Mississippi State is coming off of a 27-6 win over Middle Tennessee last week. They should be motivated to play Florida. All signs would say that they can keep this game close.

With Florida playing a great game with a chip on their shoulders, I smell a blowout. B-L-O-W-O-U-T…

Florida… 44-13

LSU vs Mississippi State, Prediction Pick, 2009
By McD from Rumors and Rants

Auburn ran for 390 yards on Mississippi State two weeks ago. Vanderbilt only averaged 1.1 yards per carry against the Bulldog defense last week. The difference? Auburn actually has talent in the backfield, much like LSU. What does that mean for this week’s SEC West clash? I have no idea.

And yet, rushing offense in general remains something of a mystery three games into the season. The Tigers ran for 164 yards on 36 attempts last week against Louisiana-Lafayette and only won 31-3. In the same game, Jordan Jefferson threw 25 times. That’s the kind of run/pass balance you’d expect from LSU. But 164 yards seems low, especially when you see that Charles Scott and Keiland Williams only got 12 carries and 10 carries, respectively. LSU barely won the time of possession battle (by a whole four minutes) and, though they threw for three touchdowns, the passing game failed to move the ball consistently. Worse, Scott couldn’t convert a 4th and 1. Against ULL’s defensive line. You read that right.

Thus, my big question heading into LSU’s first conference game of the year is: what the hell is going on with the running game and the playcalling? Is it underwhelming because Gary Crowton’s spread tendencies are screwing up a great thing in Scott and Williams? Or is it because Scott and Williams aren’t performing well, putting the OC in a bind? Or is it because the offensive line isn’t all that good?

I’m not saying the Tigers need to run it more against MSU, but the running game, and the offense in general has been singularly mediocre in three straight games. It’s never been amazing under Les Miles (killing explosive offenses, whether it be another team’s or his own, is kind of Miles’ specialty), but I want to know what the hell’s going on and I’m not even an LSU fan.

As for beating Mississippi State, the usual checklist of efficiency in the passing game and explosiveness in the running game is how the Tigers will win. MSU’s offense is much better now, so 17 points won’t cut it this week, and LSU is going to need to play better defense than this guy (http://www.bustedcoverage.com/?p=20291).

That said, the big key to this game is Jordan Jefferson. He needs to be a much bigger threat both throwing and running for the rest of the season, or the shadow of Russell Shepard is going to loom larger and larger. Shepard got into the ULL game and averaged 5.3 YPC on four attempts, much better than Jefferson’s 3.1. They even had Jarrett Freaking Lee come in and throw a touchdown near the goal line.

The LSU passing game doesn’t scare anyone, which means no one is backing away from the line of scrimmage, thus screwing up what should be a scary good rushing attack. This might be a team more built for the Georgia Tech offense than any other in the country…except for maybe Georgia Tech (though I bet Paul Johnson would switch rosters with Les Miles in a second), but since LSU likes to spread it out a lot, Jefferson throwing has to be a much, much bigger threat against Mississippi State. So once again, I’m challenging the running backs and offensive line to truly dominate this week’s game. LSU really does need to keep the Bulldog offense off the field because they are a threat to score much more than they used to be. It’s not pretty, but they’re far better than last year.

The other key is the LSU rush defense. The Tigers allowed Vandy to rush for 122 yards while MSU only gave up 29 to the Commodores. Mississippi State has a myriad of runners they use to move the ball; it’s Florida’s offense, after all. Their passing game isn’t a huge threat to LSU’s somewhat sketchy veteran secondary, but the running game is. The Tigers simply cannot allow Mississippi State to control the clock and the pace of play because the LSU offense isn’t built to handle that. We have something of an old-school Big Ten matchup happening here: LSU must run the ball effectively and defend the run effectively. Plus Jefferson cannot screw them through the air. If that happens, unless something freaky like the Colts/Dolphins game from this past Monday goes down, LSU wins on the road and silences those damn cowbells for sure.

With a 12.5 point spread, I’m taking LSU and a VERY slight cover.