Capital One Bowl Prediction Pick, 2012, Nebraska vs. South Carolina
Posted on | December 28, 2011 | 3 Comments
Alshon could use another touchdown.
Capital One Bowl Prediction Pick, 2012, Nebraska vs. South Carolina
The former Florida Citrus bowl has been home to some recent classics. Not last year, unless you hate the state of Michigan THAT BADLY. But Drew Tate won on the last second against LSU, and Kyle Orton came to make Purdue lose in hilarious fashion. 2008 brought Tim Tebow’s only post-season loss, and 2010 brought a bowl of mud that Penn State won.
Keep the jokes about the celebration to yourself please.
This year? Nebraska makes it’s first New Years appearance in a second tier Florida bowl game, taking on the South Carolina Gamecocks. And for Nebraska? This could be a challenge. Sure, Rex Burkhead and Taylor Martinez are a running tag team that front the 13th best running attack in the country. But South Carolina’s defense matches up pretty well.
For one thing? They have that defensive line of Clowney, Ingram, and Taylor. That’s the front of a defensive line that got 23 of the 25 sacks for the Gamecocks. And they will allow Antonio Allen and D.J. Swearinger to get all of the tackles.
And for the other? Nebraska’s not going to pass. They may try to pass, but where South Carolina is at their best is stuffing the pass. 2nd nationally, and second per attempt. They could probably put 8 in the box and dare Taylor to make arm magic. And with the way they generate turnovers?
Martinez will get picked. At least twice.
And the Blackshirt defense? Not nearly as vaunted as one would expect. When Jared Crick went down? This team became gettable via the run. And while Brandon Wilds isn’t a superstar, he did top the century mark in three of his starts this year. And if Alshon Jeffrey emerges? South Carolina’s going to get 21 points.
Will that be enough? Yeah. Burkhead will get a touchdown. But there won’t be much more than field goals beyond that. South Carolina’s defense will prove to be the difference. The Gamecocks build on this together.
South Carolina 21, Nebraska 13
Tags: Alshon Jeffrey > Antonio Allen > Bowl Predictions > Brandon Wilds > D.J. Swearinger > Devin taylor > Jadeveon Clowney > Rosin
Music City Bowl Prediction Pick, 2011, Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Posted on | December 19, 2011 | 2 Comments
#VickBallardStillGotOver1000yards
Music City Bowl Prediction Pick, 2011, Mississippi State vs. Wake Forest
Mississippi State was a team I had high hopes for. When this team was on paper, I had so many high hopes for them. In fact, I thought they were going to shock Alabama in Starkville. So suffice it to say, a trip to Memphis isn’t exactly what I was hoping for. But redemption is only one game away, if they can get past Wake Forest.
And while Tanner Price has two receivers in Chris Givens and Michael Campanaro that he trusts implicitly (roughly 60% of the completions are to these two), the Bulldogs have a really strong match-up with these Demon Deacons. And I’ll explain why.
Remember when I said that this was an underrated defense when they played Arkansas? Sure, Arkansas put up 44 points on them, but their defense is still one that allows under three points for every ten plays that they’re on the field. Fletcher Cox leads a solid defensive line, and John Banks and Nickoe Whitley are a secondary that deserved a better offense. But they ended up being the fifth best bowl team on a per play average in keeping points off the board.
And while Brandon Pendergrass is a good dude (I assume), he’s the frontman for a running attack that can’t gash ACC defenses. He won’t have the best of times in taking down the Bulldogs front seven. Especially in the Red Zone. It’s the most telling stat. Wake Forest is 97th in getting touchdowns in the Red Zone, and Mississippi State is 6th in giving them up. Long story short? Wake Kicker Jimmy Newman has a decent chance in leading Wake in points.
So long story short? The defense will shut Wake down. And when you consider that most of this defense isn’t exactly in line to graduate, they may win by an impressive enough total to bring back irrationally exuberant Andrew for 2012.
Mississippi State 27, Wake Forest 16.
Tags: All the Hashtag Jokes > Bowl Predictions > Chris Givens > Fletcher Cox > John Banks > Michael Campanaro > Nickoe Whitley > Rosin > Tanner Price
Liberty Bowl Prediction Picks 2011, Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati
Posted on | December 19, 2011 | No Comments
If Zac Stacy has a great day? Cincy has no chance.
Liberty Bowl Prediction Picks 2011, Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati
The Bearcats. The subject of my most controversial post of 2011. A good team who got thrown out of Knoxville by Tyler Bray. The Commodores. Where James Franklin, a good running game, and a good defense got them to a bowl game (and that was despite some bad luck). Who walks out of Memphis with the championship? Find out…Right now!
The Vanderbilt defense emphatically changed when Larry Smith was supplanted by Jordan Rodgers at quarterback. He may not be another Eli Manning when it comes to brothers of famous quarterbacks, but when he finally became the full-time starter, the offense improved by about a 1.3 yards per play. He’s has had some real shaky games (see 10-27-186-1-2 vs. Army and 17-32-193-1-3 at Tennessee), but the fact of the matter is that he’s electrified the offense.
Look no further than Zac Stacy. The second half of his season was something that you would have to call Knile Davis-esque. (755 yards and 11 touchdowns.) But that being said? Cincy has a front four that is downright nasty. Derek Wolfe fronts a defensive line that has six players who managed at least four sacks and leads the nation in sacks as well as tackles for loss. And where Vanderbilt has been at its shakiest? You guessed it.
But that being said? Vanderbilt’s defense is great at getting turnovers and limiting yardage. Normally, when you’re 6th in a conference regarding total defense, it’s never a good sign. But Vanderbilt’s 324 yards per game allowed would be good enough to contend for the best in any other conference, with one lone exception.*And while Cincy has a killer front four, as Tyler Bray showed in September, this is a passing defense that can get got. (106th nationally).
So what does it boil down to? Does Jordan Rodgers get time to throw. If he has time? This is an easy decision. Jordan Matthews and Chris Boyd will have strong games and the Bearcats go 0-2 in SEC Play. If he doesn’t? What we have here is a toss-up.
My opinion? Munchie Legaux doesn’t get a bowl win yet. Vanderbilt 26, Cincinnati 21.
Tags: Bowl Predictions > Chris Boyd > Derek Wolfe > Jordan Matthews > Jordan Rodgers > Muchie Legaux > Predictions > Rosin > Tim Fugger > Tyler Bray > Zac Stacy
Gus Malzahn to Arkansas State
Posted on | December 13, 2011 | No Comments
"Now I get all the credits!!!!" --Gene Chizik
Gus Malzahn to Arkansas State
In one of the more surprising moves of this years coaching carousel. The man tabbed to replace new Ole Miss Coach Hugh Freeze back at Arkansas State? Is former Auburn Offensive Coordinator Gus Malzahn.
Clearly, there are plenty of reasons why he would take the job. He made his bones in the Arkansas High Schools, writing the book on the Hurry-Up No-Huddle. But that being said, here’s the current context.
Last year? Gus Malzahn left a three million dollar on the table and rebuked Vanderbilt. This year? He’s making 1.2 million dollars as an Offensive Coordinator. Next year? Seems like he’s taking a 400k-500k pay cut to become a head coach.
As for Arkansas State? This seems like a brilliant move. Freeze ran a similar offense, and I can almost guarantee that some Auburn blog next year will openly question whether or not Ryan Aplin would be better than what they have now. And most of that offense returns.
For Auburn? Something has to be going on. When Ted Roof went to Central Florida, I didn’t bat an eye. Even last year? Auburn was a defense that could get got. But now? You have two BCS Championship winning assistants leaving the plains for lesser jobs and lesser money.
Have they found the eponymous bagman? Is Gene Chizik an insufferable lout who couldn’t won despite himself? Did he run Michael Dyer off?
Let me just say, I AM SPECULATING IDLY. I know nothing currently of the status of Auburn’s football program. Nothing beyond the fact that there is something smelling rotten in Auburn.
Chik-Fil-A Bowl Prediction Pick 2011, Auburn vs. Virginia
Posted on | December 13, 2011 | No Comments
Bye Michael Dyer.
Chik-Fil-A Bowl Prediction Pick 2011, Auburn vs. Virginia
After a week off, your hero’s tanned, rested and ready to power through the bowl games. And what we’re going to start with? We’re going to start with a bowl made out of chicken.
I actually won a bowl pool last year. I’m not going to be humble about it either. I was awesome. And I learned a couple of lessons as I did it. One of which? Barring a special offensive talent, trust the defense in Bowl Season.
Why? Because the numbers make it seem like it’s going to be close. I don’t think they Auburn will miss Michael Dyer as much as some would believe. Onterio McCalebb is a fine talent, and Tre Mason has the same sort of physical gifts running the ball. That being said? Auburn is bad at not letting a good rush defense through.
Virginia has that. Cam Johnson and Matt Conrath are fine talents, and they will get a big stop or two. Conversely? While Auburn is not going to face a singular talent as special as a Trent Richardson, the Cavaliers have a tag team in the backfield with Kevin Parks and Perry Jones who get a lot of the scoring for their offense.
The Passing game for Virginia is decent. Michael Rocco has emerged as an intriguing talent (10 TD’s to 4 picks after September), and he has a good target in Kris Burd. Auburn’s been okay regarding pass defense, but a good quarterback (an Aaron Murray, a Tajh Boyd, or a Tyler Wilson) has found a way to beat them.
Though Auburn has come up with a good defensive performance or two along the way, and Corey Lemonier has had a breakout season and he’s never had a second guy to mitigate defensive game plans, when you have a member of the secondary that’s going to get over 100 tackles? Your defense is bad. And Neiko Thorpe will get over 100.
All in all, I think Virginia is good enough to win by two scores. Auburn can’t get the ball to Emory Blake and Phil Lutzenkirchen on a regular basis. Auburn struggles mightily to get off the field. Virginia’s not nearly as much of a shutdown defense as a Georgia, let alone an Alabama, but they’re good. For the final time? Auburn’s run defense dooms them.
Virginia 27, Auburn 17.
Tags: Aaron Murray > Bowl Predictions > Corey Lemonier > Emory Blake > Michael Dyer > Neiko Thorpe > Onterio McCalebb > Phillip Lutzenkirchen > Predictions > Rosin > Tre Mason > Tyler Wilson
SEC Championship Prediction Pick, Georgia vs. LSU, 2011
Posted on | December 1, 2011 | No Comments
Aaron Murray will have the REM tribute band of his choice let him play Michael Stipe if he pulls the upset.
SEC Championship Prediction Pick, Georgia vs. LSU, 2011
If a reader thinks I’m being a hater on LSU? I am not. This LSU team is amazing. Between the four-pronged backfield, a de-Crowtoned Jordan Jefferson, the interesting receivers, the deep defensive line, and the ballhawking secondary? LSU is awesome. Some podcasts say LSU minus everything.
So this is the dilemma, these games have become boring if you cannot yourself into the opponent beating them. You need a lot to beat them. Balance on offense, roughly a good break a quarter, and no turnovers. For roughly a half, Arkansas had that. Does Georgia have that for longer?
In aspect one? A healthy Isaiah Crowell is a rather large point for Georgia having that all important balance. The passing game has been efficient in general, and Malcolm Mitchell seems like he’s got a chance to follow the A.J. Green path. They can show the balance needed to stay alive.
Aspect two? Georgia can make breaks as well. They actually have more turnovers than LSU does. And that balanced offense? It comes with a defense that is a whole lot better than Arkansas. As I’ve said previously, Georgia is the underrated great defense in college football. They’re 6th against the run and 11th against the pass. Arkansas was nowhere near that level.
But that being said? Georgia is not great at eliminating giving their opponents breaks. They’re not terrible. But when we’re under the supposition that LSU could finish 2nd in the AFC South? Being tied for 46th is where the achilles heel will strike Georgia down.
I mean, really. Georgia isn’t going to win this game. I love them. They’re a good team. And some random B1g Ten team is going get destroyed by them. But they do not have enough to hang with LSU beyond a potential cover.
Because LSU is great. No one denies this.
LSU 28, Georgia 10.
Tags: Aaron Murray > Bacarri Rambo > Barkevious Mingo > Gary Crowton > Isaiah Crowell > Jarvis Jones > Jordan Jefferson > Kenny Hilliard > Malcolm Mitchell > Predictions > Rosin > Ryan Baker > SEC Championship > Tyrann Mathieu
The Year in Review: Ole Miss
Posted on | November 28, 2011 | No Comments
The Year in Review: Ole Miss
As the games start to fade away, we find ourselves in a situation where the posts are becoming something more of a catch as catch can scenario. But that being said? There are 9 teams are bowl eligible. Sorry BBVA Compass Bowl! You’re not going to get an SEC Team.
But as we’re going with the years in review? We’re going to go from the bottom to the top. And you know what that means? Hotty Toddy.
Ole Miss 2-10 (0-8) 6th in the SEC West
It was a long year for Ole Miss. They did give a couple of bowl teams tough games along the way, but they were able to have a decent win. I mean, sure Fresno State went 4-8. You go out west and win? It’s a win you can hang your hat on.
But that being said? Check the record, there were so many problems. From a coach who is best known for having a quarterback become a receiver, and turning Jevan Snead into a quarterbacking husk? This was a vintage year.
And while the defense did improve from last year, it was not nearly enough in comparison to the offensive degeneration. And this led to several dark moments (LSU kneeling a turnover on downs with five minutes to go when they were up 49 in Oxford, Louisiana Tech winning by enough that they could rest their starters, getting blown out by Kentucky, having Arkansas come back on them).
So basically, assume this team is back at square one. The good news? The New AD is going to be there with his first hire. There will be patience. No matter if it’s Mick Hudspeth, Hugh Freeze, or female romantic comedy protagonist slash super defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. There’s really nowhere to go but up.
Especially when you consider that seniors Wayne Dorsey, Marcus Temple, and Alex Washington fell off the depth chart between magazine preview day and November. So guess how many seniors ended the year on the two deep? Three. (Kentrell Lockett, Brandon Bolden, and Bradley Sowell). And CJ Johnson and Jeff Scott will be solidly able to step into the shoes of two of them. Add in the return of D.T. Shackelford?
And you may see them bounce back a lot faster than some might think.
Tags: Alex Washington > Bradley Sowell > Brandon Bolden > CJ Johnson > D.T. Shackelford > Jeff Scott > Kentrell Lockett > Marcus Temple > Rosin > Wayne Dorsey
Rivalry Week Prediction Pick Briefs, featuring Georgia at Georgia Tech, 2011
Posted on | November 26, 2011 | No Comments
#Jokesarefun #SocialMedia
Rivalry Week Prediction Pick Briefs, featuring Georgia at Georgia Tech, 2011
I can wager that you can tell what my day off this week. The upside? There is undeniable proof that LSU is the best team in the SEC. Beyond a shadow of a doubt. The other upside? I won a game last week! Sure, Tennessee got a gift as inadvertent whistles are usually play stoppers in the real world, but I suppose I went 1-3, and 39-35 overall. 40-35 with LSU.
Remember, War Damn getting blown out.
Kentucky at Tennessee -7.5
Tennessee is simply a better team than Kentucky. Even without a healthy Tyler Bray, this team was just better. But with a defense that has improved as the year wore on and a healthy Bray? The Volunteers manage to steal a bowl berth after all the injuries. Tennessee 35, Kentucky 10.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State -17
#AllDanMullenDoesIsBeatOleMiss #TheRebelsSeemToHaveQuit #LesMilesGaveThemAMercyKillingLastWeek #TheBulldogsWillNotBeSoKind #MississippiState 31, Ole Miss 6 #JokesaboutMississippiState A Bajillion
Vanderbilt -1.5 at Wake Forest
This shapes up to be a pretty evenly matched battle. But a few things are in favor of the Comm0dores. One, Wake Forest isn’t exactly the kind of defense to shut down the Commodores offense. Two, the historical numbers favor Vanderbilt (Road team is 7-2 in this series, and Wake is 6 of its last 18 in its home closers). Three? Josh Harris is doubtful to play here. Vanderbilt goes bowling. Vanderbilt 28, Wake Forest 24.
Florida vs. Florida State -2.5
When in doubt? Trust the better defense. And Florida State’s front seven is built to choke out the running game of Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. It’s going to be an ugly affair, but it’s going to be an affair that the Seminoles do truly have. Florida State 17, Florida 10.
South Carolina -4 vs. Clemson
Brandon Wilds is going to have another quietly good day. And you’ll see the 2nd ranked pass defense manage a turnover or two. Not that Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins aren’t going to be kept down like last week? But I trust South Carolina more than I trust Clemson. South Carolina 33, Clemson 27.
Georgia at Georgia Tech +6
This seems to be a prime look ahead spot for Georgia. I know that when in doubt, you have to trust the defense, and Georgia Tech doesn’t have near the defense of Georgia. The Yellow Jackets is going to get Orwin Smith and Stephen Hill back this week. And they will get the points necessary to make this a game. But Mark Richt has a good team, and he always seems to win these even when the team is bad. Georgia 27, Georgia Tech 24.
Tags: All the Hashtag Jokes > Chris Rainey > Jeff Demps > Mark Richt > Predictions > Rosin > Tyler Bray > Tyler Bray's Back Tattoo
