Iron Bowl Prediction Pick 2011, Auburn vs. Alabama
Posted on | November 23, 2011 | No Comments
Trent Richardson is going in for the kill.
Iron Bowl Prediction Pick 2011, Auburn vs. Alabama
In the past few years, what was a secret only for those in the heart of Dixie has developed a certain national cachet. You watched a game Auburn take Alabama to the limit before their youth and getting caught up in the moment got to them. You then watched Auburn take a series of body blows and were about to get an overhand right knockout until Antoine Carter came up with a spectacular forced fumble.
This year? For Alabama, it’s win and you can chill until the BCS title game. For Auburn, it’s a chance to pull an upset the likes of which haven’t been seen since Punt Bama Punt. The old cliche is that you can throw the records out when these two teams clash. But are we going to see another classic?
Spoiler alert? No.
I’m sorry, but when you have Trent Richardson needing a signature game to lock down the Heisman trophy and the 98th ranked run defense? Alabama’s fixing on scoring a bunch of points. And as I’m one to respond to rhetorical questions let me just say, if they manage to force all the Trent Richardson fumbles? Eddie Lacy is going to be yet another special talent.
I mean, Gus Malzahn is probably going to slow the game down and try to take the air out of the ball. But that being said? LSU wasn’t able to manage any touchdowns on that defense. And LSU does not have near the problems Auburn does with losing yardage on offense. (Auburn currently ranks 117th, behind such college football luminaries as Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, and Memphis). They’re 92nd at converting third downs, and Alabama is first at getting their defenses off the field.
If I’m wrong, there will be so much heat on this that it could power my domicile for so many days. But the fact of the matter is simple.
I’m rolling with the Tide. Alabama 33, Auburn 7.
Tags: Antoine Carter > Eddie Lacy > Iron Bowl > Predictions > Rosin > Trent Richardson
Arkansas at LSU, the Battle for the Golden Boot Prediction Pick 2011
Posted on | November 23, 2011 | No Comments
Can Tyler create a win larger than 2007?
Arkansas at LSU, the Battle for the Golden Boot Prediction Pick 2011
Well, we’re in it now. A world where the BCS is so screwed up, Alabama is in a win and in situation, and the team that beat them? They’re going to face two top 15 opponents before they get their National Championship game. But LSU has demolished everyone in their path, and Arkansas is in a place where they have never been before. They win? And they could get a rematch with Alabama for the title.
It’s not as much of a longshot as you think, the Golden Boot has had a recent streak of games decided by one score or less. Since 2005, Arkansas’ 31-23 win last year was the largest margin of victory. And for all the fun Les Miles has had with Nick Saban? Bobby Petrino has been a thorn in the hat’s side.
Now, I know what you’re going to say. The Razorbacks got handled by Alabama. That’s true. But before Georgia Southern had 40 minutes of a game with Alabama, Tyler Wilson did score the most points against them. And that was without a healthy Dennis Johnson or arguably the hottest pass rusher in college football right now in Jake Bequette.
And Dennis Johnson is one of the keys. He doesn’t have to have a good average for Arkansas to win. He just has to stay upright and get somewhere above 3 yards per carry. Difficult? Sure. But not impossible.
Especially when you consider that Tyler Wilson is going to front the best offense that LSU has faced all year. Sure, Dana Holgorsen was able to manage to get something done against them, but West Virginia’s lack of a running game doomed them. And Trent Richardson is awesome and all, but Alabama had one wide receiver of note. Tyler Wilson has four legitimate targets to throw to. And considering that he’s been efficient in regards to touchdowns and interceptions? LSU could very well have a tough game.
I didn’t try to make mention of Garrett Uekman’s unfortunate death here. But suffice it to say that tragedy has odd effects on people. And if we’re looking at something in a one-game scenario? It could bring Arkansas a high level of inspiration. It could also make them flat.
Is LSU the better team on paper? Abso-fudgin’-lutely. But there’s a path for Arkansas to win this game. Unlike Alabama? Arkansas knows it can play with LSU, especially when you consider that this isn’t going to be a night game in Death Valley. Tyler Wilson will throw for three touchdowns, and they will get another one between the skills of their return game, and Dennis Johnson.
LSU has the game where a team comes up to get them, but they fall just short. LSU 30, Arkansas 28.
Tags: Bobby Petrino > Dennis Johnson > Jake Beuqette > Joe Adams > Predictions > Rosin > Tyler Wilson > Tyrann Mathieu
Week 12 Prediction Pick Briefs Ole Miss at LSU; Kentucky at Georgia
Posted on | November 18, 2011 | No Comments
Georgia is your SEC East Champs. SPOILERS.
Week 12 Prediction Pick Briefs Ole Miss at LSU; Kentucky at Georgia
I’m not going to belabor the point. We all know next week is rife with more intrigue. Between Georgia Southern-Alabama, Samford-Auburn, The Citadel-South Carolina, and Furman-Florida? You understand why Tennessee’s last stand is super intriguing. Just remember, Arkansas beats Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt is going bowling. Off their first felony arrest!
For me? Last week was 4-2, and a 38-32 record on the whole.
Ole Miss +28.5 at LSU
I know, this is an offense that managed 7 points against Louisiana Tech. And I’m not saying this is Houston Nutt circling the wagons. He’s in the heart of darkness. And they aren’t going to get this game anywhere near 7 points in the 4th quarter. Les Miles shows mercy. LSU 35, Ole Miss 9.
Kentucky at -27.5 Georgia
This Georgia team feels like the 2007 team. An experienced Sophomore quarterback, a running back who shows himself to be a freshman sensation. And a defense that while good, is overshadowed by LSU. Only difference? This year Kentucky’s not even close to ranked. Unless Andre Woodson shows up in Morgan Newton’s uniform, I feel good about this one. Georgia 42, Kentucky 13.
Tags: Houston Nutt > Prediction Picks > Rosin
Mississippi State at Arkansas, Prediction Pick, 2011
Posted on | November 18, 2011 | No Comments
Tyler is going to face a pretty surprising challenge.
Mississippi State at Arkansas, Prediction Pick, 2011
This is the sort of week that happens every November, there are 4 SEC teams playing FCS teams, and there’s no really interesting game in terms of betting lines. It’s the pre-show before the supercard. I mean this is the CBS game of the week, and the line is 12 points for Arkansas. But there is something to this game. A nugget of intrigue. A micro chess match within the macro.
Because Arkansas’s strength is their passing game. And while Dennis Johnson is rounding into a pretty solid form, (and Knile Davis is just a ghost to scare LSU) it’s Tyler Wilson throwing darts to Greg Childs, Joe Adams, and Jairus Wright where Arkansas’s money is made. But here’s the thing.
Mississippi State? Their defense is great against the pass.
Now I know what you’re saying, are they really great, or are they just great by the standards of the fact that you can just run them over and don’t need to throw. But the fact of the matter is that while the defense is 13th against the pass? Per attempt? They’re seventh.
So you aught to show some love for cornerbacks Corey Broomfield and Johnathan Banks, and safeties Charles Mitchell and Wade Bonner. They held off a game Louisiana Tech (and they did beat an SEC team last week), and made all the SEC quarterbacks lo0k perfectly mortal against the pass.
After all, being the first at limiting long passes is a skill that’s to be rewarded.
So Mississippi State’s mission is to keep the play in front of them, and let the offense make a mistake, and if they’re gonna die? They’re gonna die by a thousand papercuts. (Fun fact: Mississippi State has turned an opponents red zone trip into zero points every week since their game against LSU.)
And if Arkansas has 27 points? It’s another good performance by this underrated defense. Problem is?
The offense hasn’t come close to that margin against a real team going on two months now. Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 13.
Tags: Charles Mitchell > Corey Broomfield > Dennis Johnson > Greg Childs > Jairus Wright > Joe Adams > Johnathan Banks > Knile Davis > Prediction Picks > Rosin > Tyler Wilson > Wade Bonner
Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Prediction Pick, 2011
Posted on | November 18, 2011 | No Comments
He's baaaaack... #NAILEDIT
Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Prediction Pick, 2011
The fact of the matter is that this is a downy soft week for the SEC. 4 teams are playing down a level, and two games are hovering around 28 point lines. That being said, this is a game where there are high stakes. For Tennessee? It’s win or no bowl game. For Vanderbilt? This game takes all the pressure off of next week for a bowl berth. Who gets the win? Find out…in about 240 words.
The big news in Knoxville is that Tyler Bray is practicing this week. If he manages to play at a competent level, he’s this hero the offense has been crying out for. Take out the Sun Belt game and they scored23 points in their 4 games without Bray. But the thing of it is, hand injuries for a quarterback can play havoc. Not to mention an SEC East rival, but Matt Stafford’s performance last Sunday is a possible outcome for Bray coming back.
And the fact of the matter? Tauren Poole isn’t going to have a good day. Vanderbilt is a defense that gets into opponents backfields and is a top 25 defense in rushes per attempt. So with a defense that will be keying on Da’Rick Rogers, and probably needing Tyler Bray to throw 40 passes to win? Could we see Vanderbilt having one of their multiple pick games? It’s not impossible.
With that, Jordan Rodgers should have a good game. A quarterback with a good mobility tends to give Tennessee’s defense fits. And the offense has been running with a decent level of efficiency, even despite the fact that defenses are starting to key on him when they run the ball. And while Tennessee is in the top 25 of pass defense yardage wise? They’re below average per attempt. (See: Tyler Wilson destroying them.)
What does that mean? Jordan Matthews is going to continue his torrid pace of the past three games (21-452-3). And the fact I just now realized that Jordan to Jordan is the Commodore passing attack. I feel ashamed because that’s awesome.
Long story short? If Tyler Bray is at 90%, I’m fully copping out on this. Depending on his health, he’s worth at least 10 to 14 more points for the Volunteers. But I’m assuming he’s not at 90% here. The defense is going to have some problems with the dueling Jordans. And I don’t think Tennessee is going to strike fast. And if Vanderbilt hangs around? They finally get a close one. Vanderbilt 28, Tennessee 21.
Tags: Da'Rick Rogers > Jordan Matthews > Jordan Rodgers > Predictions > Rosin > Tauren Poole > Tyler Bray > Tyler Bray's Back Tattoo > Tyler Wilson
Knile Davis Back at Practice
Posted on | November 16, 2011 | No Comments
Knile Davis is coming...will his ankle be coming with him?
Knile Davis Back at Practice
As the preseason camp ended, one of the more seemingly tragic injuries for a teams chances happened, and Arkansas seemed doomed to have a long season because of it. Knile Davis broke his ankle. And it seemed like they weren’t going to be able to overcome it. Dennis Johnson missed the first two games, and was limited in September.
But after the Alabama game? Arkansas strung wins together, some were dramatic. Some were where they played down to the level of their opponents, and some were where they blew the doors off of decent opponents. And as they prepare for Mississippi State? There is a path for them to get into the National Championship game.
The thing of it is, just how legitimate is the path? Sure, winning in Baton Rouge will probably eliminate Oregon from consideration. But then there’s the Oklahoma-Oklahoma State game. If Oklahoma wins by a sound margin, does it forgive their loss to Texas Tech? And would Arkansas only qualify if there is no BCS conference with an unbeaten team?
And if the Crimson Tide faithful are wondering? I haven’t forgotten, you did win by 24 against the Razorbacks. So long story short? My head hurts. Longer story short, barring the two de facto playoff games, this has the potential to be a real mess.
Which makes the potential burning of the Knile Davis redshirt interesting. Think about it. He was supposed to be out for the year. He was the strongest preseason second team Running Back in football. He made Arkansas arguably the best team in the second half of the season.
And if there was anyway for Bobby Petrino to explain away the loss to Alabama? The loss of a superstar like Davis is easy enough for the selectorate to explain away. That being said, outside of the metagame, does actual Knile Davis actually help the team?
I mean, once Dennis Johnson got carries he gashed people. He’s averaged seven yards per carry since the Alabama game and additionally has shown himself to be a special teams ace. Maybe not like Joe Adams, but he’s got home run speed. And barring some sort of recurring of a freak injury, he’s a worthy talent.
My opinion, Knile Davis isn’t going to have a great day against LSU. But if any sort of game has a preponderance of weird? It’s the Battle for the Golden Boot. And if a superstar is going to play Willis Reed?
It’s an infusion of fun for a season in desperate need.
Joe Adams Punt Return TD vs. Tennessee, Video.
Posted on | November 13, 2011 | No Comments
Joe Adams Punt Return TD vs. Tennessee, Video.
In arguably one of the plays of the year, Joe Adams eliminates all doubt that a team that has historically given them all sorts of issues will play spoiler, legitimize thoughts of a BCS championship, and get himself nomination for an ESPY Award.
All you need to do is just watch and enjoy.
Tags: Joe Adams > Rosin
Week 11 Prediction Pick Briefs, featuring Florida at South Carolina
Posted on | November 12, 2011 | No Comments
Tyler is going to create a blowout.
Week 11 Prediction Pick Briefs, featuring Florida at South Carolina
It’s been a long week for me. And not in the college football sense. So this will be a little faster and dirtier than my average post. As for last week? 0-5. I picked teams to cover that wouldn’t, and I picked upsets that didn’t come in. I was over .500 by a good margin? Now? I’m 34-30. With Georgia going to beat Auburn.
Western Kentucky at LSU -41.5
I just want it to be said that Western Kentucky has managed a 5 game winning streak. For a team whose previous coach managed 4 wins through his reign? That’s a good thing. But they’ve been winning ugly. In the Sun Belt. It ends today. LSU 49, Western Kentucky 0.
Louisiana Tech -2 at Ole Miss
It’s time for fun with the transitive property. Ole Miss went out west in October and beat Fresno State by 8 points. Louisiana Tech went out west and beat Fresno State by 20. And when you consider that this is a team that isn’t scared by a Houston (led by 27 going into the 4th quarter), or a Mississippi State (lost in OT). They’ll finally get a BCS win over a lame duck. Louisiana Tech 31, Ole Miss 27.
Mississippi State +18.5 at Alabama
Now I know I made mention of the fact that I had Mississippi State shocking the world. I even doubled down on this. But that was before I realized that Chris Reif beat up on a JV defense. They’re not going to beat Alabama. But Alabama has bigger things on their mind, and Mississippi State is third in the conference regarding points per play allowed. Something similar to the LSU game is the end result. Alabama 21, Mississippi State 6.
Tennessee at +14.5 Arkansas
Now Tennessee’s defense has developed into something passable. Something where good health would have made this game very interesting. But 24 on a Sun Belt team doesn’t equal staying with the Bobby Petrino super system. Tyler creates a cruising win. Arkansas 34, Tennessee 17.
Kentucky +14 at Vanderbilt
Now don’t take this as an endorsement of Maxwell Smith. I’m not saying that they’re going to get the win. But stepping up from all the three and outs to competency? It means that a team that is better, but not two steps beyond the Wildcats, isn’t going to cover. Vanderbilt 31, Kentucky 21.
Florida at South Carolina -3
A healthy Connor Shaw means that South Carolina has just enough offense to get by Florida. And even with a healthy Chris Rainey, the good of South Carolina’s front four is going to be enough to get the cover. A Melvin Ingram touchdown is the difference. South Carolina 24, Florida 20.
Tags: Bobby Petrino > Chris Rainey > Chris Reif > Connor Shaw > Maxwell Smith > Melvin Ingram > Prediction Picks > Rosin > Tyler Wilson
